Dardo López-DolzPERU: AN ENDLESS POLITICAL CRISIS
On the night of October 9, the Peruvian Congress removed President Dina Boluarte from office on grounds of “moral incapacity.” Boluarte had assumed the presidency in her role as Vice President following the impeachment of Pedro Castillo, who had attempted a self-coup on December 7, 2022. Her government, widely perceived as weak and lacking legitimacy, had managed to stay afloat until yesterday, largely due to Congress’s desire to preserve institutional stability.
The entire process unfolded within just a few hours, when a more prudent course of action would have been:
A) To allow sufficient time for the constitutional right to defense, and
B) To permit a rational, unhurried discussion on whether leadership changes in Congress were appropriate—since, in the absence of vice presidents, the President of Congress is constitutionally next in line for the presidency.
TRIGGERS OF THE IMPEACHMENT
The 21st Century Socialism movement, which propelled the Castillo/Boluarte presidential ticket, has been promoting an agenda of insecurity and institutional erosion across the region. First through opposition politics and, even more effectively, once in power. Rooted in the ideological framework of the Foro de São Paulo and Grupo de Puebla, this movement has systematically weakened checks and balances throughout Latin America.
Meanwhile, the expansion of extortion activities by the Tren de Aragua – a criminal organization aptly described as an asymmetric proxy of the Maduro regime –and its Peruvian imitators has led to a surge in extortion cases, with troubling signs of complicity from members of the justice system.
As the SFS has documented, the Tren de Aragua operates as a transnational criminal network serving Venezuela’s strategic interests and projecting instability across the Andean corridor.
The continued presence of Cuban ambassador “Gallo” Zamora and the activism of foreign-funded NGOs, many backed by transnational networks such as those linked to George Soros, appear to play a non-negligible role in the current dynamics, adding to the perception that Lima’s political and security environment remains vulnerable to external influence.
Following a wave of violent protests reminiscent of the “Generation Z” franchise and a transport workers’ strike that further heightened tensions, the final trigger came with an armed attack using a submachine gun. The assailant injured members of a popular music group during a concert held at a military compound on the night of Sunday, October 5.
The nature of the attack lends credibility to the hypothesis that it was a deliberate destabilization maneuver. In contemporary Peru, large crowds only gather en masse for concerts or football matches.
Any protest, no matter how violent or media-hyped, pales in comparison to the turnout driven by musicians and athletes. If this assessment proves correct, another attack targeting one of these two activities would not be difficult to predict.
UNRESOLVED ISSUES
At the time this SITREP was written, there is no indication that the new administration has the personnel or experience required to address these intertwined security and governance challenges. This casts serious doubt on the stability of Peru’s institutions and the viability of the upcoming April 12 elections.
The new president is young and inexperienced having entered Congress as an alternate, without votes, without political experience, and without party leadership. Within hours of taking office, his old tweets and erotic social media posts began circulating, raising serious concerns in a conservative country like Peru, where such revelations can quickly erode an already fragile political base.
FORECAST: UNCERTAIN
The Peruvian far-left, both the overt and the moderate-in-disguise factions, are coming to the realization that they are entering the electoral process weak and fragmented. They are planning a major, and likely violent, protest for October 15.
Based on past events, it is highly probable that they will attempt to provoke casualties in order to trigger the downfall of President Jeri’s government. If that occurs, they may try to replicate the maneuver that placed the minority socialist Francisco Sagasti in power or even sabotage the upcoming elections altogether.
Additionally, as this analysis goes to press, news has just broken of the arrest of an armed individual who was about to open fire on Rafael López-Aliaga, the Mayor of Lima and a leading conservative presidential candidate.
The unfolding situation underscores how fragile democratic institutions remain in the Andean region, where external influence and criminal convergence continue to challenge national sovereignty and regional stability. It is with deep concern that we observe: violent times may lie ahead for Peru.