Is Venezuela preparing for war?

Joseph M. Humire

Executive Director

Meet our expert

Iran, Russia, and China, have ensured their proxy is ready to start the first inter-state war in Latin America since 1969

The Center for a Secure Free Society (SFS) has been analyzing the mounting conflict between Venezuela and Guyana for the past two years.

SFS Executive Director Joseph Humire recently visited Georgetown and the Essequibo where he held high-level briefings and meetings with the Guyana Defense Force.

Our preliminary analysis of this conflict was published in a new article in the American Spectator that describes the geopolitical nature of this conflict and why it matters for U.S. national security. SFS will have additional articles and a full-length report published soon. Be sure to follow SFS on social media to receive the latest updates.


01 At first glance, the Venezuela-Guyana conflict is about a century-old border dispute of a dense territory called the Essequibo that makes up two-thirds of Guyana’s land mass but only 15 percent of its population. The impending conflict is much more than that and has less to do with Guyana’s land border and more to do with the maritime domain.


02 Venezuela neither has the means nor motivation to recover disputed a territory that effectively has been governed by Guyana for more than a half century. This conflict is not about the Essequibo. It’s about the Atlantic. The South Atlantic is a maritime domain that is arguably among the weakest weakest in the world in maritime security.


03 Iran, Russia and China have already carried out a half-dozen joint naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman and Indian Ocean since 2018 and aspire to bring these drills to the Atlantic Ocean. Venezuela may provide them the pretext to do so with its war on Guyana.